I was encouraged by Plantation and Commodities Minister Datuk Seri Johari Abdul Ghani’s keynote at the 12th Singapore Dialogue last month, reaffirming Malaysia’s commitment to global leadership in sustainable palm oil, rooted in circular economy principles and strong environmental, social and governance (ESG) credentials. His vision is bold and necessary.

But let’s be clear: it starts upstream with the growers. Without sustained productivity and large-scale replanting, the rest remains ambition.

Is there a lack of a serious national response to the deepening crisis in Malaysia’s upstream oil palm sector?

Conversations with veteran planters reveal neglect, slow reinvestment and a troubling lack of urgency. Yes, some progressive players are moving forward, but isolated success can’t hide the broader challenges across our 5.6 million ha.

Malaysia’s oil palm industry may be sleepwalking into decline. It’s a call to reflect and act before it’s too late.

As national focus shifts to foreign investment, property and new industries, the plantation sector is largely absent from the agenda.

Annual smallholders’ support continues but lacks transformative impact.

Where are the long-term policies for replanting, mechanisation, research, and talent?

Instead, we face more regulations and reactive measures, with few bold steps to make oil palm productive, profitable and locally investable again.

This goes beyond economics – it’s about food security, rural livelihoods and national pride. Are we truly doing enough to secure the future of Malaysia’s oil palm sector?

Big planters and plantation stocks

Despite solid crude palm oil (CPO) prices, investor interest in plantation stocks remains weak, reflecting deeper structural issues: declining yields, ageing palms, rising disease and persistent negative perceptions around sustainability, deforestation and land rights. Yet industry-wide pushback or progress remains limited.

Worryingly, some major players may be reassessing their risk exposure. With growing global scrutiny, listed conglomerates might quietly scale down or redirect capital to safer, less controversial ventures.

If this trend continues, Malaysia risks repeating the decline of rubber and cocoa – with no alternative tropical crop to fill the gap.

As big players exit, what remains are underfunded firms and smallholders lacking the capacity to sustain the industry across the supply chain.

Keeping large players engaged isn’t just important – it’s essential for the sector’s survival.

At a crossroads

Do plantation owners and shareholders still believe in the long-term future of Malaysia’s palm oil industry? If so, where are the reinvestments to show it?

Instead, short-termism is taking hold. Many hold on to ageing palms to maximise cash flow, delaying replanting and sacrificing tomorrow’s yields. Labour shortages, rising costs and policy uncertainty make long-term planning tough.

What’s missing most is a clear and implementable upstream roadmap and strong incentives.

Without steady production of fresh fruit bunches, there’s no downstream, no green economy. Ageing palms become harder to harvest, more disease-prone and eventually unproductive or abandoned.

The real test of belief is action. The industry risks a slow collapse, masked by near-term profits, until mills fall silent.

Without long-term thinking and de-risking policies, productivity and relevance will erode.

One day, former plantations may be nothing but overgrown fields. The irony?

We won’t need the European Union or non-governmental organisations to undermine us – we’ll have done it ourselves.

What’s happening on the ground?

Everything starts with Malaysia’s 700 million oil palm trees. But left unmanaged, they decline. Unlike factories, trees can’t be moved or paused – they keep growing, even as neglect sets in. Are we seeing a slow unravelling, not through collapse but quiet erosion?

These trees aren’t machines, they’re living biology. Trees don’t respond to panic. Despite strong CPO prices, growers are struggling. Labour is tight, costs are up and ageing palms are left behind out of necessity.

Replanting and mechanisation are costly, so short-term survival takes precedence.

Across many estates, this isn’t neglect, it’s survival.

Growers are focusing on what pays now. But by chasing today’s gains, we’re sacrificing tomorrow’s yields. Without change, we won’t be driving growth, we’ll be managing decline.

Limited resources go to harvesting accessible bunches. Old, tall palms are left alone; young ones are fertilised selectively; others are sidelined.

Replanting and mechanisation become luxuries, not strategy.

It’s a rational response in a system lacking clear policies, safety nets and strong incentives for upstream reinvestment. But the cost of short-term thinking is mounting.

Elephant in the room

The industry’s elephants stomp through our fields and boardrooms. We talk around them, float solutions, going in circles.

Most continue with business-as-usual. But this isn’t someone else’s problem – it’s everyone’s. Many issues matter, but these demand immediate attention:

> Labour: The lifeblood drying up

Without enough workers, crops go unharvested and upkeep fails. Yet policies remain disconnected from plantation realities. Agriculture and plantations –vital to rural economies – must no longer be treated like urban-industrial sectors.

Lost crops mean lost revenue, despite full sunk costs. With migrant labour likely to shrink over time, we’re bleeding productivity and tax revenue.

> Stagnant productivity

Productivity is the real concern, and it’s been stagnant or declining. With no new land, yield gains are essential. Advanced practices exist, but labour gaps, weak management, and poor fertilisation keep yields low. Without full diligence and leadership, good agronomy alone won’t deliver.

> Lagging replanting

Replanting costs – up to RM30,000 per ha to maturity – are pushing many to delay. But delays only deepen the crisis.

> Ganoderma: A silent threat

This root rot disease spreads underground and is often detected too late. Sanitation slows it but doesn’t stop it. Research efforts remain siloed. Without breakthroughs, we’re just replanting into infected soil.

> Hype versus reality in mechanisation

Innovation has largely missed the key challenge of harvesting – cutting fruit bunches from tall oil palms.

While digital mapping, drones, artificial intelligence, and robotics get attention, none match a skilled human harvester.

Evacuation and maintenance tools exist, but cutting remains the sector’s Achilles’ heel. No near-term breakthrough is likely; machines can’t rival the speed and precision of a worker with a sickle and pole. Improved tools help, especially for older palms, but the real issue is labour – finding and keeping harvesters willing to work consistently.

Robotic harvesting is still distant, but mechanical fruit collection can be scaled now. High yields are essential to make harvesting sustainable and ensure workers earn well. This isn’t about replacing people, but supporting them.

> Talent drain

Attracting, retaining and managing the intergenerational shift of talent is a major challenge.

Why would bright young professionals join an industry perceived as environmentally harmful, socially outdated, and logistically tough, with remote postings, subpar schools, frequent transfers, and limited family support?

To compete, the sector must offer more than jobs – it must provide meaningful careers with fair pay, quality housing, good schools, spousal employment opportunities and clear paths for growth.

Do or die?

This industry covers 5.6 million ha, 700 million trees, fuels RM100bil in revenue and sustains four million lives. It’s Malaysia’s backbone. Yet, we’re failing to muster the political will, leadership and investment to save it.

The past shows what’s possible when we unite politics, science and industry. That fire must be reignited now. There’s no silver bullet, but bold, collective action can turn the tide.

To those with vision and courage: invest your capital, your leadership, your will.

Because right now, we’re just surviving, not thriving. If we don’t act, the golden goose won’t just disappear – it will be gone forever.

Joseph Tek has over 30 years of experience in the plantation industry, with a background in research, leadership and advocacy. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.